Thursday, May 19, 2016

Here comes a nice beautiful La Nina


Did we just have an El Nino?, no, perhaps I should rephrase that question; did we have a one hell of a monster of an El Nino?  And the answer is of course....... wait for it..... a unanimous yes... it was a killer.  This is especially when living in a Sydney flat without any air conditioning.

Coupled with the sensory experiences of Asperger Syndrome, the heat feels ten times as bad, which is why over the last so many years I've taken a keen interest in the El Nino and La Nina phenomenon.  It usually gives a good indication whether I'm going to live in comfort, or be baked alive during the up coming summer.

As in the present, I have to say that things are looking very hopeful.  Though I'm not a climatologist by any stretch of the imagination, I know enough to say that there is a very good chance that the summer of 2016/2017 will be a La Nina.  In meteorological terms, this means a much cooler summer with notably more rainfall - and they are the kinds of summers I LOVE!

Okay, one certainly doesn't want to see the place flooded out either, but I guess in past case studies, Sydney's summer of 2007 to 2008 became the perfect text book example of what an La Nina summer is all about; lots of CLOUD COVER, and ONLY ONE DAY where the temperature reached above 30°C.

Those in the know understand that though not the only climate indicator, the sea surface temperatures along the equatorial area of the Pacific Ocean provide the main driving force of the Nino Phenomenon.  Either an El Nino (equatorial waters warm up several degrees above the average ocean temperature), or a La Nina (equatorial waters cool substantially below the average ocean temperature) plays a major influence on the worlds climate over a particular twelve month period.  The cycle commences usually in the early southern autumn (April), and then reaches its peak during the Southern Summer (December).  Though not in all cases, climatologists can already get an idea how things will trend by May and June.  At present I wouldn't know what the main consensus is, besides what is written on the BOM ENSO Wrap Up webpage; however I'm willing to bet my money for this summer to be a nice comfortable La Nina.

First, check out this picture from NASA's Jason 2 satellite.  Though remnants of last years El Nino are still quite predominant, you can clearly make out a line of cyan blue along the equator, and that has me very excited.  This can be seen clearer in the second picture, where I've placed a black arrow parallel to the belt of cooler waters.   

So a summer coming up where the temperature doesn't go above 30 degrees.  This would be nice, what would be nicer if this trend lasts possibly by the next fifteen years.  Though I wouldn't take the below website as complete gospel, it at least offer some food for thought for all those climate warming forum moderators who have hijacked many internet forums.